The world is in a race to make enough safe energy fast enough to meet the growing needs of an expanding and wealthier population. By 2050 - in just 36 years, the world needs to create enough electrical production capacity for an additional 3.3 billion people. There are 1.2 billion people (17% of the world) without electricity today, and an additional 2 billion people will be added to the world's population between now and 2050. Compounding this is the requirement to decommission aging nuclear power plants and to replace or retrofit fossil fuel plants. About 3 billion people still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. If the long-term trends toward a wealthier and more sophisticated world continue, our energy demands by 2050 could be more than expected. However, the convergences of technologies are accelerating to make energy efficiencies far greater by 2050 than most would believe possible today.

Innovations are accelerating:

• Drilled hot rock geothermal (several kilometers down) makes geothermal energy available where conventional geothermal has not been possible, assuming sufficient water is available
• Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators
• Concentrator photovoltaics dramatically reduce costs and desalinate water by pumping sea water through micro-channels on the surface of the solar panel
• Waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips can generate electricity
• Buildings designed to produce more energy than they consume and other architectural designs for energy conservation and efficiencies
• Solar energy to separate hydrogen from water
• Microbial fuel cells to generate electricity
• Compact fluorescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes to significantly conserve energy, which can also be done by nanotubes that conduct electricity
• Metal-air batteries
• Halophytes, algae for food and liquid fuels production.
• Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and increase efficiency
• Aquaculture using Cyanobacteria for direct conversion of CO ₂ to ethanol and diesel-range alkanes
• Unused nighttime power production to supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars

Looking into the future:

• Use of genomics to create plants that produce hydrogen instead of CO ₂
• Low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR is related to cold fusion)
• High altitude wind generators
• Japan plans to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030 and China plans the same by 2040

Shell forecasts global energy demand to triple by 2050 from 2000 levels, assuming that the major socioeconomic trends continue. This, they assert, will require "some combination of extraordinary demand moderation and extraordinary production acceleration." BP forecasts a 41% increase in world energy demand from 2012 to 2035 of which 95% will come from emerging economies. IEA calculates it will take $38 trillion to meet all energy needs for the world between now and 2035, of which 90% of new demand will be in non-OECD economies. By 2035, China is expected to consume nearly 70% more energy than the U.S., although China's per capita consumption remains less than half that of the U.S todday. IEA estimates it would cost $48 billion every year until 2030 to ensure universal access to electricity and modern cooking stoves worldwide.

There is no question that renewable sources of energy such as combinations of photovoltaics, solar thermal, biomass, wind, and drilled geothermal can replace fossil fuels. The issue is to agree on focused strategy to make the changes. Over half of the newenergy generation capacity comes from renewable sources today; however, coal met 47% of new electricity demand over the past decade. IPCC's best-case scenario estimates that renewable sources could meet 77% of global energy demand by 2050, while the World Wildlife Fund claims 100% is possible. The costs of geothermal, wind, solar, and biomass are falling. Setting a price for carbon emissions could increase investments into non-fossil sources. If the full financial and environmental costs for fossil fuels were considered-mining, transportation, protecting supply lines, water for cooling, cleanups, waste storage, and so on-then renewables will be seen as far more cost-effective than they are today.

Yet, global energy-related CO₂ emissions increased 1.4% in 2012. Without major breakthroughs in technologies and behavioral changes, the majority of the world's energy in 2050 will still come from fossil fuels. Assuming that countries fulfill their existing commitments to reduce emissions and cut fuel subsidies, IEA estimates that the world primary energy demand will grow by more than one-third from 2012 to 2035, with fossil fuels accounting for over half of the increase. Emissions associated with this scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6°C, far above the agreed target of 2°C. Scenarios developed by the World Energy Council also assume fossil fuels remain dominant in 2050. Therefore, large-scale carbon capture and reuse has to become a top priority to reduce climate change, such as using waste CO₂ from coal plants to grow algae for biofuels and food or to produce carbonate for cement. Carbon capture and sequestration could reduce CO₂ emissions in industrial applications by 4Gt if 20-40% of facilities are equipped with CCS by 2050. This can be expensive, requiring the introduction of carbon taxes to make it economically attractive.

Global investment in renewables fell 11% in 2012. However, it was still the second most successful year for the global clean energy sector, and the investment is broadening geographically from established markets to new ones in Africa, Asia and Latin America. By the beginning of 2012, renewable energy sources (including hydro) supplied about 17% of global final energy consumption and more than a quarter of total global power-generating capacity (exceeded 1,360 GW, including hydro). Seven countries-China, the U.S., Germany, Spain, Italy, India, and Japan-account for about 70% of total non-hydro renewable electric capacity worldwide. However, relying on wind (surface not high altitude) and solar (ground not orbital) sources for base-load electricity in mega-cities would require massive storage systems, while other sources like geothermal, nuclear, and solar power satellites would not. Space-based solar energy systems could meet the world's electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear waste or GHG emissions. Eventually, such a system of satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis, yet some say this costs too much and is not necessary, given all the other innovations coming up.

World nuclear power capacity has fallen from 17% in 1993 to 10% today and is expected to fall slowly as nuclear costs increase, nuclear plants are decommissioned, and other sources fall in price. IAEA expects nuclear power capacity to fall between 4.5% to 6.2% by 2030. Four nuclear reactors were connected to the grid in 2013 and four permanently closed. Over half the world's 435 nuclear plants are past the 30-year lifetime and should be decommissioned; however, less than a hundred plants are scheduled to be closed by 2020. Because there are still no good solutions for the nuclear waste problem, most waste is still stored on site at nuclear plants today. Not including military or research reactors, 138 nuclear plants have been closed, but only 17 of these have been fully decommissioned. The Next Generation Nuclear Plant Industry Alliance selected a high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear concept as ensuring no internal or external event could lead to a release of radioactive material.

IEA estimates that global fossil fuel subsidies reached $523 billion in 2011, nearly a 30% increase from 2010 and six times more than subsidies for renewables, encouraging inefficient and unsustainable use. Global oil production forecasts vary considerably, but assuming no major breakthroughs affecting oil production and demand, IEA expects output could reach 96 million barrels per day by 2035 from 89 million today. Non-OECD countries consume more oil than OECD countries since April 2013. The average cost of bringing a new oil well online increased 100% over the past decade.

The global passenger car fleet is expected to double (reaching almost 1.7 billion) by 2035. Will synthetic fuels produced from natural gas, oil shale, and/or biomass be the bridge to fully electric cars? Mass production of fuel-flexible plug-in hybrid electric cars at competitive prices could be a breakthrough. A six-year U.S. study to test hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles released in 2012 exceeded expectations for fuel economy and efficiency, driving range, and durability. Manufacturers are expected to begin sales between 2014 and 2016. Some argue that the transition to a hydrogen infrastructure may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change. Options like flex-fuel plug-in hybrids, and electric and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles sooner. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel, with discussions being held in 30 other countries. The global share of biofuel in total transport fuel could grow from 3% today to 27% in 2050. Massive saltwater irrigation along the deserted coastlines of the world can produce 7,600 liters/hectare-year of biofuels via halophyte plants and 200,000 liters/hectare-year via algae and cyanobacteria, instead of using less-efficient freshwater biofuel production from corn that has catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Nearly two-thirds of incremental gas supply to 2035 could come from unconventional gas, primarily shale gas. However, the process of "fracking" to get the gas may release methane to the atmosphere, pollute groundwater from underground wells to dispose of wastewater, and may even trigger earthquakes. As a result, political pressure to improve standards and insure implementation is increasing.

Japan plans to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030, and China plans to do the same by 2040. The LUNA RING project of Shimizu, a Japanese construction company, aims to install solar cells around the lunar equator and transmit electricity to the Earth. Such space-based solar energy systems could meet the world's electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear waste or GHG emissions. Eventually, such a system of satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis, yet some say this costs too much and is not necessary, given all the other innovations coming up.

Challenge 13 will have been addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row and when atmospheric CO 2 additions drop for at least five years.

Regional Considerations

Africa: There are vast oil and gas reserves in Africa; however, issues of governance and corruption are slowing investments. Nigeria and Angola produce over two million barrels of oil per day now, and six West African countries, plus Mozambique and South Africa are expect to develop reserves as well. South Africa has the fifth-largest-485 trillion cubic feet-technically recoverable shale gas and Nigeria produces the most natural gas today (23 billion cubic meters per year). It is estimated that 66% of land deals are intended for biofuel production, versus 15% for food crops. Over 70% of Sub-Saharan Africa does not have access to electricity. In the third bidding round of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program, South Africa approved 17 renewable energy projects, valued at $3.3 billion with the total capacity of 1.5GW. Africa Standard Bank Group plans to invest $50-75 million in Kenya's Lake Turkana wind project, and $3 billion in Mozambique's Mphanda Nkuwa hydropower project. Kenya plans to increase its geothermal capacity to 5,000 megawatts by 2030. The World Bank estimates that geothermal in East Africa's Rift Valley could power 150 million homes. New oil fields have been established in Ghana and Kenya. Algeria will invest $60 billion in renewable energy projects by 2030. By 2050, some 10-25% of Europe's electricity needs could be met by North African solar thermal plants. The $80 billion Grand Inga dam could generate 40,000 MW of electricity, but the project is progressing slowly. Barefoot Power, the winner of the Ashden Awards, will provide energy-efficient, affordable light-emitting diode lamps, home lighting systems, and phone chargers to 10 million people living in off-grid communities in Ghana, Senegal, Nigeria, and India by 2015.

Asia and Oceania: The enormous population and economic growth is leading to the higher energy prices and shortages. According to the ADB, the Asia Pacific regional energy demand could double by 2030, by 2035 the region will consume 56% of the world's annual energy output, and today there are about a billion people without electricity. India alone has 289 million people without electricity. Nearly 2 billion people in Asia rely on biomass for cooking. . Japan shut down its last working nuclear reactor in September with no timetable for a restart. To make up for an electricity shortfall, Japan increased fuel imports, resulting in a record $48.7 billion trade deficit in the first half of 2013. Meanwhile, Japan is building a large offshore wind farm off the coast of Fukushima. Corruption in the South Korean nuclear industry is reducing that countries long-range forces for nuclear power. China plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuel energies to 13% of primary energy consumption and reduce that of coal to 65% by 2017. China invested $67 billion in clean energy in 2012, and plans to expand nuclear capacity from 10.7 gigawatts in 2010 to 160 gigawatts in 2040. Meanwhile, China approved the construction of more than 100 million tonnes of new coal production capacity in 2013. India will invest $37 billion in renewable energy to add 17,000 MW of capacity by 2017. Solar lighting is already a cost-effective option in off-grid India, even with government subsidies on kerosene. Oil and gas production in the Caspian region will grow substantially by 2030; Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan lead the growth in oil and gas respectively. India had 20 operating nuclear reactors and 7 in construction. Singapore plans to increase the energy efficiency of buildings by 80% by 2030. Australia has vast renewable energy resources, but the new carbon tax of AU$23 per tonne of CO₂ may be too low to stimulate serious change.

Europe: The EU announced it will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030, compared with the 1990 level, and will produce 27% of its energy from renewable sources by the same date. Currently it has reduced emissions by 18.3% since 1990, and is likely to be 25% below 1990 levels by 2020. Renewable sources account for about 13% of the EU's overall energy consumption today and plans to increase that to 20% by 2020. Sweden has the highest share of renewable energy in total consumption at 46.8% (non-EU Norway has the share of 65%). The new climate and green energy targets, however, do not include legally binding national targets. Instead, member states will have "indicative" target of improving energy efficiency by 25% by 2030. Conservation and efficiencies could reduce EU's energy consumption about 30% below 2005 levels by 2050. Low-carbon technologies could provide 60% of energy by 2020 and 100% by 2050, according to the EU's low carbon roadmap. Norther Europe is expected to focus on wind while southern Europe will focus on solar energy. The EU plans to have 10-12 carbon capture and storage demonstration plants in operation by 2015. Germany and Switzerland plan to phase out nuclear energy. Finland's nuclear power plant estimated construction costs grew from $4.5 billion to $12 billion. Meanwhile, Germany opened its first coal-fired power plant since 2005, and plans to build 10 more totaling 7,985 megawatts by 2015. Poland imports more than 80% of its natural gas from Russia, but its shale gas reserves may provide Poland with enough gas for more than 50 years. Meanwhile, France is opposed to the extraction of shale gas, and The Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Bulgaria have suspended drilling for shale gas. Oil extraction in the Arctic offshore territories in Russia might peak at 13.5 million tons a year over the next 20 years in the most optimistic forecasts, less than 3% of overall oil production of Russia today. Amsterdam plans to have 10,000 electric cars by 2015. Five geothermal power plants in Iceland meet 27% of the country's electricity needs. Denmark plans to have 100% of its energy from renewable sources by 2050. Wind is now Spain's main energy source at 21.1%, just passing nuclear at 21%, while financial constraints have forced the government to cut back on renewable energy support resulting in renewable energy experts leaving the government. Shale gas in Central Europe is expected to lower energy prices there within 20 years.

Latin America: The region increased its share of the world's clean energy investments from 5.7% in 2011 to 6% in 2012. Brazil has been the cheapest biofuel producer for years, but it is losing its competitiveness due to the real's rise against the dollar and the high price of sugar. Brazil imported 70m liters of U.S. ethanol in 2010, up from just 1 million in 2009. Its first commercial-scale plant of second-generation biofuel (cellulosic ethanol) will start production in December 2013. Some 90% of the automobiles produced in Brazil are flex-fuel. Argentina is the world's second largest producer of biodiesel, with 13.1% of the market. Geothermal, solar, and wind are vast untapped resources for the region, as are gains from efficiencies. Ecuador announced that it would refrain from drilling for oil in the Amazon rainforest reserve in return for up to $3.6 billion in payments from industrial countries. Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil reserves (requiring advanced production technology) are larger than Saudi Arabia's reserves. Cuba plans to increase its renewable energy production by 12% by 2020.The Spanish-owned electric grid company was nationalized in Bolivia. Peru is promoting the use of natural gas from its new reserves discovered in the Camisea field.

North America: The U.S. has increased its oil production to 8 million barrels per day; the highest level since the 1980s. Canada has the second largest oil reserves in the world but also among the most environmentally damaging. DOE forecasts U.S. natural gas to pass coal as an energy source to produce electricity by 2035. The U.S EPA announced a draft regulation requiring coal-fired power plants to capture and store portion of the carbon dioxide they produce. It also proposed a rule to cut CO₂ emissions from existing coal plants by as much as 30% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. Nine states in the U.S. generated more than 12% of their electricity from wind power in 2013. The world's largest solar thermal power plant started operation in California's Mojave Desert. The U.S. investment in renewable energy fell 32% in 2012. For the first time, natural gas has tied with coal for fueling electricity production in the U.S. Nearly half of U.S. natural gas production in 2035 will come from shale gas. Lesser-known potential clean energy sources in the U.S. include high-altitude wind off the East Coast, Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion in the Gulf Stream, solar thermal in the Midwest (Four Corners CO), drilled hot rock geothermal, and nano-photovoltaics. Algae farms for biofuel may cost $46.2 billion per year to replace oil imports. California requires oil refineries and importers of motor fuels to reduce the carbon intensity of their products by 10% by 2020. San Francisco's mayor called for the city to go 100% renewable by 2020. Pacific Gas & Electric Company of California agreed to buy 200 megawatts of space-based solar power by 2016 from Solaren. It is estimated that recycling waste heat from nuclear power plants to home air conditioners and recycling body heat to recharge batteries could reduce CO₂ by 10-20% in the U.S.

Graph using Trend Impact Analysis; it is part of the 2012 State of the Future Index computation (See Chapter 2, SOFI 2012)